https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn
Department of Science & Technology had put together a committee, National Supermodel Committee, to study the spread of the novel coronavirus in India and to recommend policy interventions to help the government. The committee members are were M. Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad), who was also the chair; Manindra Agrawal (IIT Kanpur); Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar (Ministry of Defence); Biman Bagchi (Indian Institute of Science); Arup Bose and Sankar K. Pal (Indian Statistical Institute); and Gagandeep Kang (CMC Vellore).
Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach (SUTRA) is a mathematical model for pandemics, authored by M Agrawal (IIT Kanpur), M Kanitkar (Integrated Defense Staff), and M Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad).
https://www.sutra-india.in/
https://www.iith.ac.in/~m_vidyasagar/arXiv/Super-Model.pdf
SUTRA: An Approach to Modelling Pandemics with Asymptomatic Patients, and Applications to COVID-19
Manindra Agrawal, Madhuri Kanitkar, Mathukumalli Vidyasagar
https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158
All data used for modelling in SUTRA is from non-official dataset available at https://www.covid19india.org/
Crowdsourced resource based non-official data
https://www.covid19india.org/
Data sourced from state bulletins and official handles and validated by a group of volunteers and published into a Google sheet and an API
Kerala COVID-19 Tracker
https://covid19kerala.info/
Data is sourced from Govt of Kerala Directorate of Health Services (DHS) and various news outlets.
Maintained by Volunteers at CODD-K Team. Supported by Government College Kasaragod.
A citizen science initiative for open data and visualization of COVID-19 outbreak in Kerala, India
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20092510v1.full.pdf
AN OPEN APPEAL TO THE HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA signed by 907 scientists to access to the granular testing data, clinical data, Adequately fund and widen the network of organizations to collect large-scale surveillance data based on genome-sequencing of the coronavirus, Expand the network of organizations to collect population-level data, and Withdrawal of restrictions on import of scientific equipment and reagents under "Aatmanirbhar Bharat” policy
https://sites.google.com/view/corona-appeal/home
Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics or Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genetics Consortium (INSACOG) is a consortia of 10 labs across the country tasked with scanning COVID-19 samples from swathes of patients.All these 10 laboratories are required to share 5% of positive samples to INSACOG for further research and studies. Two national genomic sequencing database centers are appointed 1) National Institute of Biomedical Genomics and 2) CSIR Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology.
Indian Scientists Response to COVID-19, a voluntary group of scientists
INDSCI-SIM, a state-level epidemiological model for India, is the first detailed, state-specific, epidemiological compartmental model for COVID-19
https://indscicov.in/for-scientists-healthcare-professionals/mathematical-modelling/indscisim/
COV-IND-19 Study Group at the University of Michigan
https://umich-biostatistics.shinyapps.io/covid19/
Problems with the Indian supermodel for COVID-19
Basing public health policy on flawed models can be dangerous
https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/problems-with-the-indian-supermodel-for-covid-19/article32937184.ece
Data lapse
https://scroll.in/article/991429/ending-in-february-2021-expert-covid-committees-supermodel-flounders-as-second-wave-surges
A visual guide to the Covid crisis in India
Covid-19 in India: Cases, deaths and oxygen supply
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56891016
Coronavirus: How India descended into Covid-19 chaos
India is a Covid disaster - it didn't have to be
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56977653
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/opinion/india-coronavirus-vaccination.html
GUEST ESSAY
How India Can Survive the Virus
Vaccines alone won’t save the country.
NEW DELHI — As of Tuesday, India had over 23 million reported cases of Covid-19 and more than 254,000 deaths. The real numbers may be much higher, as the country reported an average of more than 380,000 new cases per day in the past week.
As a virologist, I have closely followed the outbreak and vaccine development over the past year. I also chair the Scientific Advisory Group for the Indian SARS-CoV2 Consortium on Genomics, set up by the Indian government in January as a grouping of national laboratories that use genetic sequencing to track the emergence and circulation of viral variants. My observations are that more infectious variants have been spreading, and to mitigate future waves, India should vaccinate with far more than the two million daily doses now.
In India the virus was mutating around the new year to become more infectious, more transmissible and better able to evade pre-existing immunity. Sequencing data now tells us that two variants that fueled the second wave are B.1.617, first found in India in December, which spread through mass events; and B.1.1.7, first identified in Britain, which arrived in India with international travelers starting in January. The B.1.617 variant has now become the most widespread in India.
On Monday the World Health Organization designated B.1.617 a variant of concern. When tested in hamsters, which are reasonable models for human infection and disease, B.1.617 produced higher amounts of virus and more lung lesions compared with the parent B.1 virus. Global data shows the B.1.617 variant to be diversifying into three sub-lineages. In a preliminary report posted on Sunday, British and Indian scientists found the B.1.617.2 variant in vaccine breakthrough infections in a Delhi hospital.
On Monday, American researchers reported the B.1.617.1 variant to be neutralized with reduced efficiency by serums from recovered Covid-19 patients and those vaccinated with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Indian researchers reported similar findings in a preliminary report on April 23.
With these variants circulating through India’s still mostly unvaccinated population, public health officials here are trying to determine when the second wave might peak, how big it will be and when it will end.
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Aaron E. Carroll, a professor of pediatrics, writes that some danger will still exist when things return to “normal.”
The estimates vary widely. The Supermodel Group, preferred by the Indian government, estimated cases to have peaked at about 380,000 cases per day in the first week of May. The simulation model by the Indian Scientists Response to COVID-19, a voluntary group of scientists, predicts that daily cases will reach a peak sometime in mid-May, but it forecasts a much higher peak, about 500,000 to 600,000 daily cases. The COV-IND-19 Study Group at the University of Michigan predicts a peak by mid-May with about 800,000 to one million daily cases.
All models predict India’s second wave to last until July or August, ending with about 35 million confirmed cases and possibly 500 million estimated infections. That would still leave millions of susceptible people in India. The timing and scale of the third wave would depend on the proportion of vaccinated people, whether newer variants emerge and whether India can avoid additional superspreader events, like large weddings and religious festivals.
What worries me is that we may not even be able to measure the peak cases accurately. Data show that testing is increasing at a far slower rate than cases. In this scenario, numbers will reach a plateau — not because case numbers have stopped rising but because testing capacity will be tapped out. The national average test positivity rate is over 22 percent, but several states have rates that are, alarmingly, even higher — including Goa at 46.3 percent and Uttarakhand, which hosted the Kumbh festival, at 36.5 percent. “India will have a manufactured peak of about 500,000 daily cases by mid-May,” argued Rijo M. John, a health economist.
Vaccines remain one of the most effective public health tools, and vaccination with speed is shown to significantly reduce the spread of the coronavirus. India started its vaccination drive in mid-January with a sensible plan to vaccinate 300 million people in phases — health care workers, frontline workers and then people above 60 years of age or above 45 years with comorbidities. And as a leading supplier of vaccines worldwide — India supplies about 40 percent of all the world’s vaccines — two Indian companies, Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech, were well positioned to execute.
But by mid-March only 15 million doses had been delivered, covering a mere 1 percent of India’s population. The vaccination drive was hobbled by messages from Indian leadership that the country had conquered the virus and by news from Europe associating fatal blood clots with the AstraZeneca vaccine, which remains the mainstay of India’s vaccination rollout.
When the second wave arrived, only 33 million people, about 2.4 percent of the population, had received one dose and seven million people had received both doses. On May 1, vaccination opened for everyone older than 18 years, but many states have reported shortages and the pace of vaccination has slowed down. Local supplies are expected to stabilize by July, but their low penetration cannot reverse the current wave of infection and death in India.
Covid-19 vaccines mitigate disease, but they may not prevent infection, especially when transmission rates are as high as they are now. Though good data is lacking, variant viruses with evasion potential may also have a role in “breakthrough” infections in vaccinated people.
The immediate need is to reduce spread by increased testing and isolation of people who test positive. Several Indian states are under lockdown. This would “flatten the curve,” allowing health care facilities and supplies to regroup. Rapidly enhancing the health care infrastructure will also save lives. India should increase available hospital beds by setting up temporary facilities, mobilize retired doctors and nurses, and strengthen the supply chain for critical medicines and oxygen.
At the same time, India cannot allow the pace of vaccinations to slow. It must vaccinate at scale now, aiming to deliver 7.5 million to 10 million doses every day. This will require enhancing vaccine supplies and doubling delivery points. There are only about 50,000 sites where Indians can get vaccines right now; we need many more. Since only 3 percent of these delivery points are in the private sector, this is where capacity can be added.
All of these measures have wide support among my fellow scientists in India. But they are facing stubborn resistance to evidence-based policymaking. On April 30, over 800 Indian scientists appealed to the prime minister, demanding access to the data that could help them further study, predict and curb this virus.
Decision-making based on data is yet another casualty, as the pandemic in India has spun out of control. The human cost we are enduring will leave a permanent scar.
Shahid Jameel is a virologist and director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University in Sonipat, India.
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