Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Viswaroop of Dr. Biswaroop Roy Chowdhary

Internationally renowned medical nutritionist, Dr Biswaroop Roy Chowdhary, PhD in Diabetes, (AIU, Zambia)

From his website at https://biswaroop.com/

(AIU stands for Alliance International University, Zambia. Higher Education Authority of Zambia has deregistered privately owned Alliance International University in Lusaka for failing to maintain minimum standards and offering substandard training services.

http://www.daily-mail.co.zm/substandard-university-deregistered/

https://www.pressreader.com/zambia/daily-nation-newspaper/20180405/281968903253384

http://www.daily-mail.co.zm/no-substitute-for-quality-higher-education-in-growth-equation/

At present, this bogus university which is a degree mill is operating from Curaçao in Dutch Caribbean

http://aiuglobal.com/)

https://badscience.in/biswaroop-roy-chowdhury/

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-56845610

Chief Editor, India Book of Records, https://indiabookofrecords.in/about-us/

Chief Editor, Asia Book of Records, https://www.asiabookofrecords.com/about-us/

Dr. Biswaroop also runs training programs on medical nutrition and emergency life support for Lincoln University College, Malaysia.https://indiabookofrecords.in/profiles/

He runs a bogus university, World Records University, https://worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk/

Although domain name suggests that it is an United Kingdom entity, its copyright line says that "All disputes are subject to Faridabad jurisdiction only", which means its head office is in Faridabad, like many Chit companies in Kerala.

The house (second from left) in Faridabad's Sector 7 where over 130 chit funds had offices until 2013. (https://www.businesstoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/faridabad-became-hub-for-chit-funds-operating-in-kerala-41065-2013-05-07)

Further the Terms and Conditions page of WRU (https://worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk/terms-conditions/) states that

Links To Other Web Sites.

Our Service may contain links to third-party web sites or services that are not owned or controlled by worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk. worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk has control over, and assumes its responsibility for, the content, privacy policies, or practices of any third-party web sites or services. You further acknowledge and agree that Biswaroop.com shall be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with use of or reliance on any such content, goods or services available on or through any such web sites or services.

worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk has a menu on a completely different entity, Indo-Vietnam medical Board at https://worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk/about-ivmb/

It mentions "Its advisory board comprises of world renowned doctors who have made a mark in their own field of expertise. Some of them are

Dr John Mcdougall (USA) (may be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_A._McDougall & https://www.drmcdougall.com/),
Dr Leonard Horowitz (USA) (may be http://drlenhorowitz.com/),
Dr. Giang Phung Tuan (Vietnam) (may be https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/borderless-doctor),
Dr Hoang Hiep (Vietnam) (may be https://www.drhiephoanguniversity.com/),
Dr. Biswaroop Roy Chowdhury (India) (the hero),
Dr B. B. Goel (India) (http://www.lifehappy.org/content/profile/cure_fedration.asp),
Dr Ritu Nanda (India) (https://www.drritunanda.com/about.html)" She is claimed to be "A Trained Clinical Hypnotherapist and Certified Trainer from California Hypnosis Institute (CHI-USA)", but the website of California Hypnosis Institute, https://californiahypnosis.net/ (which is not authorised or accredited) clearly says that the so-called staff (https://californiahypnosis.net/teachers/) and students of this students (https://californiahypnosis.net/members/) are all Indians .

(The peculiarity of all these doctors is that none of them had undergone medical education except the first one and then also they have written books in medicine and some of them practice as quacks. Among these Dr Hoang Hiep and Dr. Biswaroop Roy Chowdhury runs their own universities.)

Further the webpage says "World Records University in collaboration with Indo-Vietnam Medical Board offers Doctorate in Nature Science and Medicine to those who want to pursue curing and reversing life style diseases like diabetes, heart diseases, etc through Whole Food Plant based diet.".

https://worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk/doctorate-in-nature-science-and-medicine/ gives more details about Honorary Doctorate in Nature Science and Medicine.

The website of Asia Book of Records (https://www.asiabookofrecords.com/medical-wing/our-patrons/) also highlights this fictitious board

Monday, June 28, 2021

Doctors having vanity degrees from diploma mills

Union HRD Minister, Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank

https://www.thestatesman.com/india/fake-degree-row-returns-haunt-ramesh-pokhriyal-nishank-1502761186.html

സംസ്ഥാന വനിതാ കമീഷൻ അംഗം ഷാഹിദ കമാസംസ്ഥാന വനിതാ കമീഷൻ അംഗം ഷാഹിദ കമാൽ

Dr. Shahida Kamal, Kerala Women's Commission member

http://web.archive.org/web/20191004034320/http://keralawomenscommission.gov.in/index.php/content/index/present-commission

https://iou.edu.gm/

Boby Chemmannur,

https://worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk/

Founder of Universal Achievers Book of Records, Dr. Babu Balakrishnan, a Multiple World Record Achiever and the First Tamizhian in the World to be honoured with Doctorate of Philosophy in Record Breaking for the Biggest Banner in the World by World Record’s University, London

Dera Sacha Sauda head and rape convict Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh did not complete high school education but never failed to prefix "Dr" since he was granted a PhD by the 'World Record University' in January 2016. However, it has now emerged that the 'university' is not recognized by the UK government where it is headquartered. To top it all, the body has now decided to "withdraw the degree" conferred upon the godman.

http://web.archive.org/web/20170912004936/https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/unrecognized-varsity-to-withdraw-phd-conferred-upon-gurmeet-ram-rahim/articleshow/60416075.cms

Fake universities awarding higher degrees

International Open University (IOU), The Gambia

https://iou.edu.gm/

The Open International University For Alternative Medicines

80, Jawaharlal Nehru Rd, Esplanade, Chandni Chawk, Bowbazar, Kolkata, West Bengal 700020

https://www.altmeduniversity.com/

The Open International University for Alternative Medicines (OIUAM),

Kuttalam, Nagapattinam District, Tamilnadu - 609 801, India

http://ointunialtmed.net/phd_programme/index.html

Prof. Dr.T.Selvaraj, M.A., M.Phil., Ph.D., B.G.L., widely regarded as the pioneer of the holistic medical movement in India, is the Chairperson of the OPEN INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY FOR ALTERNATIVE MEDICINES (OIUAM). An internationally renowned practitioner of Alternative Medicine, Dr.T. Selvaraj is also an Organizer, Visionary, Author, Writer, Teacher, Poet and an Editor of a Monthly Magazine (http://ointunialtmed.net/sharing_chairperson/index.html)

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/trichy/fake-university-vc-targeted-only-quacks-to-issue-degrees/articleshow/67495657.cms

The Open International University for Complementary Medicines,

Mt Lavinia, Sri Lanka

https://oiucm.net/

Code of ethics of fake university https://oiucm.net/professional-ethics/

Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank

https://www.thestatesman.com/india/fake-degree-row-returns-haunt-ramesh-pokhriyal-nishank-1502761186.html

Open University of Alternative Medicines is formed as CUG Level Prophetic Medicine University

https://oiuam.org/

List of fake universities in India identified by UGC

https://www.ugc.ac.in/pdfnews/3958086_Fake-Universities.pdf

List of unaccredited institutions of higher education, Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unaccredited_institutions_of_higher_education

Vanity record books

Universal Achievers Book of Records

https://universalachieversbookofrecords.com/

Dr. Biswaroop Roy Chowdhary,

https://biswaroop.com/

Asia Book of Records

https://www.asiabookofrecords.com

https://www.asiabookofrecords.com/about-us/

India Book of Records

https://indiabookofrecords.in/

and they have set up World Records University at https://worldrecordsuniversity.co.uk/ at the same addresses.

Tamil Nadu Book of Records

https://www.tamilanbookofrecords.com/

Monday, June 7, 2021

Covid in India

https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn

Department of Science & Technology had put together a committee, National Supermodel Committee, to study the spread of the novel coronavirus in India and to recommend policy interventions to help the government. The committee members are were M. Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad), who was also the chair; Manindra Agrawal (IIT Kanpur); Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar (Ministry of Defence); Biman Bagchi (Indian Institute of Science); Arup Bose and Sankar K. Pal (Indian Statistical Institute); and Gagandeep Kang (CMC Vellore).

Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach (SUTRA) is a mathematical model for pandemics, authored by M Agrawal (IIT Kanpur), M Kanitkar (Integrated Defense Staff), and M Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad).

https://www.sutra-india.in/

https://www.iith.ac.in/~m_vidyasagar/arXiv/Super-Model.pdf

SUTRA: An Approach to Modelling Pandemics with Asymptomatic Patients, and Applications to COVID-19

Manindra Agrawal, Madhuri Kanitkar, Mathukumalli Vidyasagar

https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158

All data used for modelling in SUTRA is from non-official dataset available at https://www.covid19india.org/

Crowdsourced resource based non-official data

https://www.covid19india.org/

Data sourced from state bulletins and official handles and validated by a group of volunteers and published into a Google sheet and an API

Kerala COVID-19 Tracker

https://covid19kerala.info/

Data is sourced from Govt of Kerala Directorate of Health Services (DHS) and various news outlets.

Maintained by Volunteers at CODD-K Team. Supported by Government College Kasaragod.

A citizen science initiative for open data and visualization of COVID-19 outbreak in Kerala, India

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20092510v1.full.pdf

AN OPEN APPEAL TO THE HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA signed by 907 scientists to access to the granular testing data, clinical data, Adequately fund and widen the network of organizations to collect large-scale surveillance data based on genome-sequencing of the coronavirus, Expand the network of organizations to collect population-level data, and Withdrawal of restrictions on import of scientific equipment and reagents under "Aatmanirbhar Bharat” policy

https://sites.google.com/view/corona-appeal/home

Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics or Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genetics Consortium (INSACOG) is a consortia of 10 labs across the country tasked with scanning COVID-19 samples from swathes of patients.All these 10 laboratories are required to share 5% of positive samples to INSACOG for further research and studies. Two national genomic sequencing database centers are appointed 1) National Institute of Biomedical Genomics and 2) CSIR Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology.

Indian Scientists Response to COVID-19, a voluntary group of scientists

INDSCI-SIM, a state-level epidemiological model for India, is the first detailed, state-specific, epidemiological compartmental model for COVID-19

https://indscicov.in/for-scientists-healthcare-professionals/mathematical-modelling/indscisim/

COV-IND-19 Study Group at the University of Michigan

https://umich-biostatistics.shinyapps.io/covid19/

Problems with the Indian supermodel for COVID-19

Basing public health policy on flawed models can be dangerous

https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/problems-with-the-indian-supermodel-for-covid-19/article32937184.ece

Data lapse

https://scroll.in/article/991429/ending-in-february-2021-expert-covid-committees-supermodel-flounders-as-second-wave-surges

A visual guide to the Covid crisis in India

Covid-19 in India: Cases, deaths and oxygen supply

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56891016

Coronavirus: How India descended into Covid-19 chaos

India is a Covid disaster - it didn't have to be

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56977653

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/opinion/india-coronavirus-vaccination.html

OPINION

GUEST ESSAY

How India Can Survive the Virus

Vaccines alone won’t save the country.

May 13, 2021

NEW DELHI — As of Tuesday, India had over 23 million reported cases of Covid-19 and more than 254,000 deaths. The real numbers may be much higher, as the country reported an average of more than 380,000 new cases per day in the past week.

As a virologist, I have closely followed the outbreak and vaccine development over the past year. I also chair the Scientific Advisory Group for the Indian SARS-CoV2 Consortium on Genomics, set up by the Indian government in January as a grouping of national laboratories that use genetic sequencing to track the emergence and circulation of viral variants. My observations are that more infectious variants have been spreading, and to mitigate future waves, India should vaccinate with far more than the two million daily doses now.

In India the virus was mutating around the new year to become more infectious, more transmissible and better able to evade pre-existing immunity. Sequencing data now tells us that two variants that fueled the second wave are B.1.617, first found in India in December, which spread through mass events; and B.1.1.7, first identified in Britain, which arrived in India with international travelers starting in January. The B.1.617 variant has now become the most widespread in India.

On Monday the World Health Organization designated B.1.617 a variant of concern. When tested in hamsters, which are reasonable models for human infection and disease, B.1.617 produced higher amounts of virus and more lung lesions compared with the parent B.1 virus. Global data shows the B.1.617 variant to be diversifying into three sub-lineages. In a preliminary report posted on Sunday, British and Indian scientists found the B.1.617.2 variant in vaccine breakthrough infections in a Delhi hospital.

On Monday, American researchers reported the B.1.617.1 variant to be neutralized with reduced efficiency by serums from recovered Covid-19 patients and those vaccinated with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Indian researchers reported similar findings in a preliminary report on April 23.

With these variants circulating through India’s still mostly unvaccinated population, public health officials here are trying to determine when the second wave might peak, how big it will be and when it will end.

OPINION CONVERSATIONQuestions surrounding the Covid-19 vaccine and its rollout.

When is it still important to wear a face mask?
Three health experts address readers’ questions about mask guidelines.
What can I do once I'm vaccinated?
Tara Haelle, a science journalist, argues that even after you're vaccinated, "you will need to do your own risk assessment."
What can I do while my children are still unvaccinated?
David Leonhardt writes about the difficult safety calculations families will face.
When can we declare the pandemic over?
Aaron E. Carroll, a professor of pediatrics, writes that some danger will still exist when things return to “normal.”

The estimates vary widely. The Supermodel Group, preferred by the Indian government, estimated cases to have peaked at about 380,000 cases per day in the first week of May. The simulation model by the Indian Scientists Response to COVID-19, a voluntary group of scientists, predicts that daily cases will reach a peak sometime in mid-May, but it forecasts a much higher peak, about 500,000 to 600,000 daily cases. The COV-IND-19 Study Group at the University of Michigan predicts a peak by mid-May with about 800,000 to one million daily cases.

All models predict India’s second wave to last until July or August, ending with about 35 million confirmed cases and possibly 500 million estimated infections. That would still leave millions of susceptible people in India. The timing and scale of the third wave would depend on the proportion of vaccinated people, whether newer variants emerge and whether India can avoid additional superspreader events, like large weddings and religious festivals.

What worries me is that we may not even be able to measure the peak cases accurately. Data show that testing is increasing at a far slower rate than cases. In this scenario, numbers will reach a plateau — not because case numbers have stopped rising but because testing capacity will be tapped out. The national average test positivity rate is over 22 percent, but several states have rates that are, alarmingly, even higher — including Goa at 46.3 percent and Uttarakhand, which hosted the Kumbh festival, at 36.5 percent. “India will have a manufactured peak of about 500,000 daily cases by mid-May,” argued Rijo M. John, a health economist.

Vaccines remain one of the most effective public health tools, and vaccination with speed is shown to significantly reduce the spread of the coronavirus. India started its vaccination drive in mid-January with a sensible plan to vaccinate 300 million people in phases — health care workers, frontline workers and then people above 60 years of age or above 45 years with comorbidities. And as a leading supplier of vaccines worldwide — India supplies about 40 percent of all the world’s vaccines — two Indian companies, Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech, were well positioned to execute.

But by mid-March only 15 million doses had been delivered, covering a mere 1 percent of India’s population. The vaccination drive was hobbled by messages from Indian leadership that the country had conquered the virus and by news from Europe associating fatal blood clots with the AstraZeneca vaccine, which remains the mainstay of India’s vaccination rollout.

When the second wave arrived, only 33 million people, about 2.4 percent of the population, had received one dose and seven million people had received both doses. On May 1, vaccination opened for everyone older than 18 years, but many states have reported shortages and the pace of vaccination has slowed down. Local supplies are expected to stabilize by July, but their low penetration cannot reverse the current wave of infection and death in India.

Covid-19 vaccines mitigate disease, but they may not prevent infection, especially when transmission rates are as high as they are now. Though good data is lacking, variant viruses with evasion potential may also have a role in “breakthrough” infections in vaccinated people.

The immediate need is to reduce spread by increased testing and isolation of people who test positive. Several Indian states are under lockdown. This would “flatten the curve,” allowing health care facilities and supplies to regroup. Rapidly enhancing the health care infrastructure will also save lives. India should increase available hospital beds by setting up temporary facilities, mobilize retired doctors and nurses, and strengthen the supply chain for critical medicines and oxygen.

At the same time, India cannot allow the pace of vaccinations to slow. It must vaccinate at scale now, aiming to deliver 7.5 million to 10 million doses every day. This will require enhancing vaccine supplies and doubling delivery points. There are only about 50,000 sites where Indians can get vaccines right now; we need many more. Since only 3 percent of these delivery points are in the private sector, this is where capacity can be added.

All of these measures have wide support among my fellow scientists in India. But they are facing stubborn resistance to evidence-based policymaking. On April 30, over 800 Indian scientists appealed to the prime minister, demanding access to the data that could help them further study, predict and curb this virus.

Decision-making based on data is yet another casualty, as the pandemic in India has spun out of control. The human cost we are enduring will leave a permanent scar.

Shahid Jameel is a virologist and director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University in Sonipat, India.

Mullaperiyar Dam: Sword of Damocles

The report, titled 'Ageing water infrastructure: An emerging global risk' and compiled by United Nations University's Canadian-based Institute for Water, Environment and Health, says most of the 58,700 large dams worldwide were constructed between 1930 and 1970 with a design life of 50 to 100 years. It said at 50 years, a large concrete dam "would most probably begin to express signs of ageing."

The report said that approximately 3.5 million people are at risk if India's Mullaperiyar dam in Kerala, built over 100 years ago, "were to fail".

From the report available at https://inweh.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Ageing-Water-Storage-Infrastructure-An-Emerging-Global-Risk.pdf

Mullaperiyar Dam, Periyar River, Kerala, India. Age: 125 years

The Mullaperiyar Dam is a gravity dam of 53.6 m in height and a reservoir capacity of 443 million m³. It impounds the Periyaru River in Kerala State, downstream to Tamil Nadu state, India. It was built in 1895 by the British government to provide irrigation and eventually began to generate power in 1959 (Chowdhury, 2013; Thatheyus et al., 2013). At the time of construction, the dam had an intended lifespan of 50 years (Chowdhury, 2013). Still, in service over a century later, the dam shows significant structural flaws and may be at risk of failure. The dam is located in a seismically active area. A minor earthquake caused cracks in the dam in 1979 (Rao, 2018), and in 2011, more cracks appeared in the dam due to seismic activity (Thatheyus et al., 2013). Leaks and leaching are also concerning, as the methods and materials used during construction are considered outdated compared to current building standards. In response to these structural issues, dam decommissioning has been considered. However, a conflict between Kerala and Tamil Nadu States started to grow regarding the best way to manage this ageing infrastructure (Thatheyus et al., 2013). Although the dam is located in Kerala, it is operated by the upstream state of Tamil Nadu. Kerala residents are afraid of a dam collapse and argue that the reservoir level must be lowered until the dam is fixed. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu residents want to maintain the water levels at capacity (Rao, 2018). In 2009, Kerala requested a new dam to be built, but Tamil Nadu opposed the idea. Currently, the decision of how to manage the ageing Mullaperiyar dam is hotly debated and working through the court system. A dam failure risk would be catastrophic: nearly 3.5 million people will be affected (Chowdhury, 2013).

Related studies

Chowdhury, A. R. (2013). Decommissioning dams in India: a comparative assessment of Mullaperiyar and other cases. Development in Practice, 23(2), 292–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2013.772563

Rao, S. (2018). Explainer: Why Kerala and Tamil Nadu have fought for decades over the Mullaperiyar dam. Scroll.In. Retrieved October 18, 2020, from https://scroll.in/article/864687/explainer-why-kerala-and-tamil-nadu-have-fought-for-decades-over-the-mullaperiyardam

Thatheyus, A., Dhanaseeli, D. P. , & Vanitha, P. (2013). Inter - State Dispute over Water and Safety in India: The Mullaperiyar Dam, a Historical Perspective. American Journal of Water Resources, 1(2), 10-19 http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajwr/1/2/2/

Birth of coronavirus 2 in a lab?

The truthtellers China created a story of the pandemic. These people revealed details Beijing left out

A look at whistleblowers and truthtellers who warned of the virus as it was taking hold, and who paid the price. Some have gone missing, others have been detained by Chinese authorities, while others contracted and died from COVID-19.

Intelligence on Sick Staff at Wuhan Lab Fuels Debate on Covid-19 Origin, The Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2021

Report says researchers went to hospital in November 2019, shortly before confirmed outbreak; adds to calls for probe of whether virus escaped lab

U.S. intel report identified 3 Wuhan lab researchers who fell ill in November 2019, NBC News, May 24, 2021

The details add to circumstantial evidence supporting a theory Covid-19 spread to humans after escaping from a lab. But the evidence is far from conclusive.

Wuhan lab leak theory 'IS feasible' says British intelligence as evidence mounts that Covid was engineered by Chinese scientists

Daily Mail

Meanwhile, an explosive new study claims Chinese scientists created Covid in a Wuhan lab, then tried to cover their tracks by reverse-engineering versions of the virus to make it look like it evolved naturally from bats. The paper's authors, British Professor Angus Dalgleish and Norwegian scientist Dr. Birger Sørensen, wrote that they have had 'prima facie evidence of retro-engineering in China' for a year - but were ignored by academics and major journals. Dalgleish is a professor of oncology at St George's University, London, and is best known for his breakthrough creating the first working 'HIV vaccine', to treat diagnosed patients and allow them to go off medication for months. Sørensen, a virologist, is chair of pharmaceutical company, Immunor, which developed a coronavirus vaccine candidate called Biovacc-19. Dalgleish also has share options in the firm. The shocking allegations in the study include accusations of 'deliberate destruction, concealment or contamination of data' at Chinese labs, and it notes the silencing and disappearance of scientists in the communist country who spoke out. The journal article, obtained by DailyMail.com, is set to make waves among the scientific community, as the majority of experts have until recently staunchly denied the origins of COVID-19 were anything other than a natural infection leaping from animals to humans. While analyzing COVID-19 samples last year in an attempt to create a vaccine, Dalgleish and Sørensen discovered 'unique fingerprints' in the virus that they say could only have arisen from manipulation in a laboratory. They said they tried to publish their findings but were rejected by major scientific journals which were at the time resolute that the virus jumped naturally from bats or other animals to humans. Even when former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove spoke out publicly saying the scientists' theory should be investigated, the idea was dismissed as 'fake news'. Over a year later, leading academics, politicians and the media finally flipped, and have begun to contemplate the possibility that COVID-19 escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China - a lab where experiments included manipulating viruses to increase their infectiousness in order to study their potential effects on humans. Dalgleish and Sørensen have authored a new study, which concludes that 'SARS-Coronavirus-2 has no credible natural ancestor' and that it is 'beyond reasonable doubt' that the virus was created through 'laboratory manipulation'. In the 22-page paper which is set to be published in the scientific journal Quarterly Review of Biophysics Discovery, the scientists describe their months-long 'forensic analysis', looking back at experiments done at the Wuhan lab between 2002 and 2019.

One of their earlier study:

Biovacc-19: A Candidate Vaccine for Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Developed from Analysis of its General Method of Action for Infectivity

U.S. Report Found It Plausible Covid-19 Leaked From Wuhan Lab

The 2020 lab report was used by the State Department in its own inquiry during Trump administration

WASHINGTON—A report on the origins of Covid-19 by a U.S. government national laboratory concluded that the hypothesis claiming the virus leaked from a Chinese lab in Wuhan is plausible and deserves further investigation, according to people familiar with the classified document.

The study was prepared in May 2020 by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and was drawn on by the State Department when it conducted an inquiry into the pandemic’s origins during the final months of the Trump administration.

It is attracting fresh interest in Congress now that President Biden has ordered that U.S. intelligence agencies report to him within weeks on how the virus emerged. Mr. Biden said that U.S. intelligence has focused on two scenarios—whether the coronavirus came from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident.

People familiar with the study said that it was prepared by Lawrence Livermore’s “Z Division,” which is its intelligence arm. Lawrence Livermore has considerable expertise on biological issues. Its assessment drew on genomic analysis of the SARS-COV-2 virus, which causes Covid-19, they said.

Scientists analyze the genetic makeup of viruses to try to determine how they evolved and spread in the population. Proponents on both sides of the debate over the origins of Covid-19 have cited such analysis to try to make their case.

A spokeswoman for Lawrence Livermore declined to comment on the report, which remains secret.

The assessment is said to have been among the first U.S. government efforts to seriously explore the hypothesis that the virus leaked from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology along with the dominant hypothesis that the virus spread naturally from animals to humans. Although some prominent scientists have called for a fuller probe of the lab hypothesis in recent months, many scientists still insist a natural spillover remains the most likely explanation.

China’s government has repeatedly denied that the virus escaped from a Chinese laboratory and said it is cooperating fully with international efforts to find the pandemic’s origins. Many scientists and officials from other countries dispute that Beijing has provided sufficient access and transparency in the investigation. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has also denied that the virus leaked from its facilities and said that none of its staff have tested positive for Covid-19.

One person who read the document, which is dated May 27, 2020, said it made a strong case for further inquiry into the possibility the virus seeped out of the lab.

The study also had a major influence on the State Department’s probe into Covid-19’s origins. State Department officials received the study in late October 2020 and asked for more information, according to a timeline by the agency’s arms control and verification bureau, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The study was important because it came from a respected national laboratory and differed from the dominant view in spring 2020 that the virus almost certainly was first transmitted to humans via an infected animal, a former official involved in the State Department inquiry said.

The State Department’s findings, which were vetted by U.S. intelligence agencies, were made public in a Jan. 15 fact sheet that listed a series of circumstantial reasons why the Covid-19 outbreak might have originated as a result of a lab accident. They include the assertion that “the U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019” with symptoms that were consistent with Covid-19 or a seasonal flu.

The Journal reported last month that this assertion was based, at least in part, on a U.S. intelligence report, that three WIV researchers became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care.

White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki has said that the information on the three researchers came from a foreign entity and that additional corroboration is needed. Biden administration officials also have noted that the State Department’s Jan. 15 fact sheet acknowledges that the U.S. government doesn’t know precisely where, when and how the virus was first transmitted to humans.

The existence of the Lawrence Livermore study was reported by the Sinclair Broadcast Group last month and was noted in a recent article by Vanity Fair.

In his statement on May 26 calling for a fresh intelligence investigation, Mr. Biden didn’t reference the classified Lawrence Livermore report, but he said that U.S. national laboratories, overseen by the Energy Department, would augment the spy agencies’ work.

After the initial public reports about the Lawrence Livermore study, Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee—who are conducting their own investigations into Covid-19’s origins—wrote the lab’s director, Dr. Kimberly Budil, requesting a classified briefing on the issue.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a recent interview with Axios that was broadcast on HBO Max that the U.S. needs to get to the bottom of what happened to prevent or mitigate the effects of future pandemics.

The Chinese government, he added, hasn’t provided sufficient access or information to advance international probes into Covid-19 origins.

“What the government didn’t do in the early days and still hasn’t done is given us the transparency we need,” Mr. Blinken told Axios.

Justification of CPI-M for floods in Kerala

https://www.facebook.com/cpimcc/posts/kerala-chief-minister-gives-details-of-dam-management-in-response-to-certain-acc/1005317516306595/

Communist Party of India (Marxist)

2018, ഓഗസ്റ്റ് 23

Kerala Chief Minister gives details of Dam Management in response to certain accusations made by Congress and BJP

It is time, when not only Kerala but also the entire world is focussed on the flood relief rehabilitation process and reconstruction work in the State. Experts offer positive suggestions; people are doing whatever they can to help; and even foreign countries are offering financial aid.
However, in such a situation, the Opposition Leader Ramesh Chennithala has come forward to raise criticism. The government is not worried about any criticism. But, those who criticise must not just do it for the sake of criticising.
Opposition leader has made a number of criticisms. Those can be taken take one by one. Let’s look at its nuances.
Let me read a post by Ramesh Chennithala on Facebook on July 30 at 8.32 am. Ramesh wrote:

“Visiting Idukki dam. If the water rises over 0.36 feet, then the orange alert will be made. We must take immediate steps to alleviate the concerns of people. Opening of shutters has become inevitable.”
Three things are clear from this. One: Opening the shutter was inevitable. Two: At that point from blue alert was being moved to orange alert. Three: Ramesh Chennithala knew that blue alert was announced. Else he wouldn’t have talked about the orange alert. Ramesh’s Facebook post is the biggest proof of the alert.
On the night of August 14, 2018, Ramesh’s Facebook post says: “All preparations have been taken by the district administration and the District Disaster Relief Authority.” Ramesh, who said that the administration had done everything possible, is now saying that the dams were opened without any precaution.
On the same day at 8.59 pm, Ramesh has also written that the district administration had said that it would increase the quantity of water released. This is also proof that there have been notifications from time to time. Ramesh’s posts on Facebook itself are answers to Ramesh’s allegations. In such a situation, let's just say now that it is improper to make such baseless allegations, while the truth is in his posts itself.
The leader of the opposition said that in flooding in 1924 was a natural creation, and what happened in 2018 was a tragedy caused by the Government. The opposition leader’s statement was based on the fact that there was a bigger rainfall in 1924 than now. According to assessment, from 1 June to 20 August, Kerala got 2500 mm of rain and in 1924 the rainfall was 3368mm.
At first glance this figure seems to be true. But this is misleading. Ramesh’s estimate of 3,368 mm rain in 1924 is the total rainfall in the year, including the Monsoon and Thulavarsham. However, the rainfall is only about 2500 mm in 2018, which is just in one season. What is the point in comparing the whole year’s rainfall with just one season’s?
Even if Ramesh’s account is accepted, (i.e., comparing the whole year with just one season), the difference of rainfall is just 868 mm. In 1924 there was only one dam in Kerala. Today there are 82 dams in Kerala and of these 42 are major dams. The fact is that these dams could be managed effectively. That’s why accidents could be contained despite receiving heavier rain than 1924.
In fact, this time the rain was more severe than 1924. This must be seen along with the special nature of the rain. This time around, the rain was filling up more water in short period of time. In Idukki, after the first round of rains, from 26-07-2018 rain has been declining. The total rainfall which was 54.2 mm on 26.07.2010 declined to 6.2 mm on 28-07-2010 and 3.2 mm on 06-08-2018. On 07-08-2018, the rain was only 13.8 mm. This is why the shutters were not opened at that point.
But on 08-08-2018, the situation changed. The average rainfall was 128.6 mm. This continued on 9th and 10th. The rainfall, which abated a bit, went up to 295 mm by 16-08-2018. A third of the rainfall Kerala receives normally was received between four days from August 14 to 17. In Idukki this was 811 mm in four days. It was twice as usual. In Kaki, these four days saw 915 mm of rain. This was also twice the normal rainfall. This is how the water level went up unexpectedly and shutters were to be opened in a controlled manner.
The cause of flooding in Kalady, Perumbavoor and Aluva is not just because of the water from Idukki and Idamalayar dams. The actual reason flooding is not just the increased water flow caused by the opening of the dams, but also due to the increased water in the rivers due to the natural water that has flown through the river without any restraint. If these things are understood, how can someone say that this is tragedy caused by the government?
The flooding of Achankovil Aaru caused flooding in Pandalam. The water that submerged Thiruvalla is the water from Manimalai Aaru. There are no dams in these two rivers. What is the logic behind the argument that the opening of dams caused flooding?
The flood in Pala was caused by the water from Meenachal Aaru. The flooding in Nilambur is the due to the water in Chaliyar. There are no dams in Meenachal Aaru and Chaliyar either. Then how can this argument be sustained?
Across Kerala, there were floods, landslides and other disasters. This is due to the widespread rain and not because of the opening of damns.
Ramesh said that the government erred in the management of dams and that the dams were opened without any warning.
Flooding is not because of the water from the dams. Didn’t flood occur in 1924, when Kerala had just one dam? This time, from August 1 to 19, a total of 758.6 mm of rainfall was received. During this time, the average rainfall normally is 287.5 mm. This year, in these days rain was 164 per cent more than the usual.
From August 9 to 15, the additional rainfall received was 617 per cent in Thiruvananthapuram, 438 per cent in Idukki, 246 per cent in Pathanamthitta and 527 per cent in Kollam. Apart from the dams that are opened every year, in all other dams water is released only after precise warnings like blue alert, orange alert and red alert.

Some dams have to be opened every year as even little rainfall causes increase in water levels. At these dams, the process followed is that the revenue authorities are informed and the rate of water flow rate is adjusted depending on the water level. Since, the people are aware of this and this is an annual practice, blue, orange and red alerts are not issued. It has not happened before and now.
The major dams are Idamalayar, Idukki, Pamba-Kaki-Anathodu dams. These dams have been opened this year after proper warning as prescribed. In Idukki, the prescribed norm is that blue alert is issued when water level reaches 2,390 ft, orange alert at 2,395 ft and red alert at 2,399 ft.
This time in the case of Idukki damn, blue alert was issued on 26-07-2010 and orange alert on 30-07-2018 and red alert on 09-08-2018.
In the case of Anathodu-Kakki, blue alert was issued on 29-07-2018, orange alert on 31-07-2018 and red alert on 08-08-2010. In the case of Pampa blue alert was issued on 17¬-07-2018, orange alert on 26-07-2018. On 30th July, 2010, the water level dropped and the orange alert was removed. After water started to go up, orange alert issued again on 09-08-2018. However, the water again increased and the red alert was issued.
In the case of Idamalayar, blue alert was issued on 25-07-2010, orange alert on 01-08-2018 and red alert on 08-08-2018. This is officially documented. There have been widespread publicity about this in the media. If only enquired with officials or editors of media, Ramesh Chennithala would not have to make such accusations.
Another complaint is that the Banasura Sagar Dam in Wayanad was opened without warning
Banasura Sagar dam is one of the dams that are opened every year and without any warning. It is never opened with any alert. This time, the dam was full in the second week of July, due to the heavy rains in June and July, and was opened on 15-07-2018. The dam was opened till 05-08-2018. People are aware that this dam is opened this way at this stage.
Therefore, no accidents have been reported at these stages. Dam shutters were closed on 05-08-2010 following a relatively low water flow. But on 06-08-2010, there was massive raining and the entire reservoir level was filled by the morning of 07-08-2010. It happened in about 10 hours.
On the morning 6.30 on 07-08-2010, the shutter of the dam was opened to flow water out. As Ramesh says it wasn’t done at night without anyone’s knowledge, but was done at 6.30 in the morning. As the rain intensified, the shutters had to be raised eight times. That is how there was increased water flow from Banasura Sagar.
Banasura Sagar is a dam made of sand. This dam does not have any facility to store water above the full reservoir level like the other dams. In Idukki, the full reservoir level is 2,403 feet. And storing water up to 2,408.5 feet is not a problem. In the case of Banasura Sagar, there is no other option than to drain the reservoir if water reaches the full reservoir level.

Another allegation by Ramesh is that simultaneous opening of all 44 dams without any warning has caused the flooding. Other allegations of the opposition leader is that 9 dams of Pamba were opened together, and 11 dams in Idukki and Ernakulam districts, and six dams in the Chalakudy river were opened together. And the Government had no clue about the placed that would flood and would submerge under water.
There are two major reservoirs connected to the Sabarigiri project at Pampa -- Pamba and Kaki-Anathodu. The rest are small dams. These small dams are opened every year. With the dams filling up, following increased rain fall on 8th, 9th and 10th, to avoid other accidents, these dams were opened with alerts as prescribed by the law.
That all of these warnings were met fully proves that the government had a good idea about this. People living on the banks of these rivers were informed about the overflowing of rivers and were advised to relocate. The situation of opening of Idukki-Idamalayar dams together was also averted due to the availability of precise information. The opposition leader’s accusation that all dams were opened together is baseless.
Sholayar and Perungalkuttu dams in Chalakudy river are under the control of Kerala. Both are small dams and these overflow every year. This time, water flow increased as a result of heavy rains. Also with water coming from Tamil Nadu’s Sholayar Dam and Parambikkulam, the low lying areas of Chalakudy were flooded. That is what happened.
In the press release, the opposition leader accuses that there was no warning about the massive flooding in places like Kalady, Perumbavoor, Paravoor, Vaikom and Panthalam in Ernakulam district.
All the places, pointed out by the opposition leader, warning was issued about rising water level on July 26th, when the preparations were on for the trial run of the Idukki project. Thereafter, at various stages of alerts regarding Idukki-Idamalayar dams and also ahead of the opening of the dams, warnings were given. Steps were taken to relocate people from the banks of the rivers. The opposition leader conveniently forgets about posting on Facebook that all warnings were given.
Another accusation by the opposition leader is that trial run was not conducted in Idukki dam even after 2,397 ft.
The government had taken all steps to conduct a trial run in Idukki at 2,397 ft. But, before that water filled up at Idamalayar and the dam had to be opened on 8-08-2018. It was on 08-08-2018 that the water was reached at 2397 ft in Idukki dam. With an opened Idamalayar dam, opening of Idukki would have caused massive destruction. The trial was postponed on the basis of this review. One cannot call in postponing as it was done the next day itself. There is no need to portray it as postponing.
Leader of the Opposition says that there were differences of opinion between the water resources minister and the electricity minister on this issue. This can happen only his imagination.

“Only when the water level reached 2,398.98 ft, the Government gave its permission to raise one shutter by 50 cm and by that time, it was too late and situation was out of control, and the water level reached 2,400.1 ft,” says the statement by the opposition leader.
The water level was 2,397 ft on 08-08-2018 noon. It is the opposition leader who says that the next day it went up to 2,400.1 ft and subsequently became uncontrollable on August 10th. He has the precise information about it. This proves that the rain, which was not there till 08-08-2018, poured down in one go continuously and caused the flooding. Ramesh says on Facebook that the water level was below orange alert on 30-07-2010. The water level has been receding after that.
The water level which was falling till 07-08-2018, increased on 8th, 9th and 10th. Opening of Mullaperiyar dam on 15-08-2018 and the heavy rain on 16-08-2018 caused massive increase in the water level. No one could have foreseen this. Yet, the Government intervened cautiously, warning was given, people were relocated, and restricted the water flown out of the dam by blocking more than half of the rainfall in the dam itself.
Ramesh says that during heavy rains in 2013, there was no need to open the Idukki dam as water level was kept low by the early opening of small dams in anticipation of rain and generating additional electricity in Idukki.
In 2013, the Monsoon was normal. During that time period, water level did not increase in Idukki dam. The water level rose during the Thulavarsham. Even in that rain fall, when the water level reached 2,403 ft, that is the full reservoir level, the situation didn’t warrant the opening of the dam. The rain was so less. That rain came in Thulavarsham . After that it is Summer.
The BJP leaders are also saying what Ramesh says. Therefore, no separate answers are given to the two groups. This is a combined answer to both.

@BsOLutE nOnsEnsE